We all know that Gold is a unique asset, as it directly moves opposite of the stock market trend. When the stock market crashes, gold prices go to peak & when the stock market reaches the peak, gold prices surpass the depression trend! The Gold price outlook 2024 appears promising, with factors such as monetary policies, geopolitical landscape, and central bank gold acquisitions shaping its path.
Mumbai, A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2024, with gold price projected to touch Rs 72,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets.
In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of USD 2,070 per ounce in March to a low of USD 1,616 per ounce in November and have been steadily recovering since then, according to market experts!
Article Highlights
Gold Prices In 2024:
While the trajectory for gold leans towards an upward incline, intermittent corrective phases are anticipated. Key support levels for gold are pegged at ₹59,500 and ₹58,700 per 10 gm. Dips in prices are likely to entice buying interest, potentially propelling prices to new record highs of around ₹72,000 per 10 gm in 2024.
“Gold in the international market is expected to trade in a range of USD 1,670-2,000 with a positive bias in 2024. On the MCX gold may trade in a range of Rs 70,000-72,000,” Kotak Securities Vice President and Head Commodity Research Ravindra V Rao told PTI as a source ( Press Trust of India )
While the demand for gold is likely to be resilient in 2024, Rao said further tightening of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve could cast a dark shadow on yellow metal prices, at least in the first quarter of 2024.
International Monetary Fund On Gold Prices:
“Physical demand for gold bars and coins remains strong, spurred by ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical and financial market risks. Inflows in gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) might start gaining momentum as the Fed is likely approaching the final leg of rate hikes in the current cycle,” IMF on Gold.
Market experts opined that the Russia-Ukraine / Israel-Palestine conflict led to a short-term spike in gold prices before it began falling amid a stronger dollar and the spike in crude oil prices.
The hike in interest rates effected by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to manage inflation during the year also dampened sentiment for gold, as rising yields undermined the holding capacity of zero-yielding bullion, they added.
World Gold Council Managing Director for India Somasundaram PR said – high gold prices and a sharper focus on Current Account Deficit (CAD) to support imports for growth in priority sectors may put gold under policy pressure in 2024.
“Gold demand will, however, be driven by factors supporting long-term price performance and portfolio balancing even as sentiments about India’s economic growth will remain hugely positive for the stock markets in 2024,” further said PR.
Building on a robust performance with returns of around 15% in 2023, gold is positioned to sustain its allure in 2024 within the intricate macroeconomic environment. The US Federal Reserve has pivoted its policy stance, signalling the conclusion of its most aggressive rate-hike program.
With inflation showing significant moderation, the central bank is expected to embark on rate cuts in 2024, with three reductions anticipated throughout the year. Markets are already factoring in a potential rate cut as early as March 2024.
This shift could exert downward pressure on the dollar index, leading to a further decline in US bond yields, thus bolstering the overall outlook for gold.
Silver Prices In 2024:
The appeal of silver also remains strong, fueled by robust industrial demand driven by the global transition to green energy. The silver market is expected to conclude its third consecutive year in deficit.
Having traded in a range of $20-$26 per ounce in 2023, a sustained move beyond $26 per ounce or ₹78,500 per kg level could trigger strong momentum toward the $30 per ounce or Rs. 85,000-88,000 per kg range.
Conclusion:
2024: Brace for a gold rush as geopolitical grey clouds meet the shimmering allure of record highs. While the Fed’s tango may cast shadows in Q1, the siren song of gold will rise above, echoing from Mumbai to Wall Street. Silver joins the chorus, driven by the beat of green energy. Get ready for a market melody worth dancing to.
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